Century International: “Economic Collapse—Not Elections—Will Shape Lebanon’s Future”

I have a new commentary for The Century Foundation’s Century International today, on what I think this weekend's Lebanese elections do and do not mean for the country's politics:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/economic-collapse-not-elections-will-shape-lebanons-future

Lebanon's parliamentary elections on Sunday are the first since the country's mass anti-government protests, beginning in October 2019; its economic crisis, among the worst in modern history; and the August 2020 explosion at Beirut port, which devastated the capital and killed more than two hundred people. The country has changed substantially since its last elections in 2018. And yet: despite all that, most people inside and outside the country expect this vote to deliver more of the same, and to reproduce the country's existing political leadership.

In this commentary, I expand on the ways I think these elections will and will not matter for Lebanon, and how an ordinary citizen's vote actually seems to relate to the country's trajectory. I also talk about where I believe real change in Lebanon will come from – namely, the country's ongoing economic collapse, which will make things in Lebanon different, and probably worse.