Century International: “Lebanon and Syria’s Detainee Dilemma”

My latest for Century International: On why it's difficult for Lebanon and Syria to reach a deal to repatriate Syrians held in Lebanese prisons, and what that says about the two countries' relationship going forward:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/lebanon-and-syrias-detainee-dilemma/

TIME: “Why Ahmed al-Sharaa’s U.N. Debut Matters”

My latest for TIME: On Syrian president Ahmad al-Shara's appearance at the UN General Assembly, and how UN members now welcoming him in New York need to be careful not to encourage him to impose control on a still divided country:

https://time.com/7319571/syria-sharaa-united-nations/

L’Orient-Le Jour: “Une Opportunité Pour Réchauffer les Relations Entre le Liban et la Syrie” / L’Orient Today, “Lebanon’s refugee returns program can solidify relations with Syria”

My latest for L'Orient Today/L'Orient-Le Jour, on how Lebanon's Syrian refugee return program fits into a Lebanese-Syrian bilateral relationship that I think is going to be challenging…

In English: https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1477137/lebanons-refugee-returns-program-can-solidify-relations-with-syria.html

And French: https://www.lorientlejour.com/article/1477170/une-opportunite-pour-rechauffer-les-relations-entre-le-liban-et-la-syrie.html

An-Nahar: “Promising Plan for Syrian Refugee Returns… If Salam Government Sticks With It”

My new op-ed in Lebanon's An-Nahar on the Salam government's Syrian refugee returns plan:

https://www.annahar.com/articles/Opinion/238384/خطة-واعدة-لعودة-النازحين-السوريين-إذا-تمسكت-بها-حكومة-سلام

Century International: “Home to Syria: Lebanon’s New Refugee Returns Plan”

My new Century International report on the Lebanese government's new Syrian refugee return plan – what the plan is, its realistic prospects, and how to deliver returns that are truly sustainable:

https://tcf.org/content/report/home-to-syria-lebanons-new-refugee-returns-plan/

L’Orient Today: “The Ever-shifting Sands of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon”

I have a new commentary in Lebanon's L'Orient Today on how to understand the number of Syrian refugee returns from Lebanon since December, and the implications for Lebanon's returns policy:

https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1466835/the-ever-shifting-sands-of-syrian-refugees-in-lebanon.html

Since December, about as many Syrians have fled from Syria to Lebanon as have returned from Lebanon to Syria – maybe more. That's something unique to Lebanon, among regional host countries. It's also an important reason why Lebanese decision-makers ought to view returns as a long-term challenge and to focus on returns that are really sustainable.

Enab Baladi: “Trump Syria Policy's Cold Features”

Again, for Arabic readers: I have a new op-ed in Syria's Enab Baladi about the Trump administration's Syria policy and prospects for sanctions relief, based on my visit to Washington earlier this month:

https://www.enabbaladi.net/751283/ملامح-باردة-لسياسة-ترامب-السورية/

I thought a Syrian audience might be interested in some of my takeaways from Washington meetings. Hopefully useful for people!

An-Nahar: “Displaced Syrians Haven't Returned After Assad's Fall… Study Lays Out the Reasons”

For any Arabic readers: I published an op-ed in Lebanon's An-Nahar yesterday about the reality of Syrian refugee return from Lebanon since Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December – a reality that has been more complicated than many in Lebanon expected:

https://www.annahar.com/articles/Opinion/210327/نازحون-سوريون-لم-يعودوا-بعد-سقوط-الأسد-دراسة-تبين-الأسباب

Century International: “Cross-Border Shuffle: Refugee Movement Between Lebanon and Syria after Assad”

Since the fall of Assad, tens of thousands of Syrians have been moving across the Lebanese-Syrian border – in both directions, from Lebanon to Syria and Syria to Lebanon. My new report for Century International lays out who is moving where, and why:

https://tcf.org/content/report/cross-border-shuffle-refugee-movement-between-lebanon-and-syria-after-assad/

Century International: “Will Sectarian Massacres Derail Syria’s Transition?”

A short Q&A with me and my Century International colleague Aron Lund on the sectarian killings that the Syrian coast saw this past weekend, and their lasting ramifications:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/will-sectarian-massacres-derail-syrias-transition/

Century International: “Assad Is Gone—But for Refugees to Return, the World Needs to Invest in Syria’s Peace”

My new Century International commentary on the return of Syrian refugees from Lebanon, and why we may not see large-scale returns just yet:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/assad-is-gone-but-for-refugees-to-return-the-world-needs-to-invest-in-syrias-peace/

The fall of the Assad government in Syria has raised expectations in Lebanon and other refugee-hosting countries that large numbers of Syrian refugees will now go home. For many refugees, though, return is not so easy – and there's a lot more to be done in Syria, if the country is actually going to be someplace livable for returnees.

This short piece draws on interviews I did in north Lebanon last month, as part of a larger ongoing project on Syrian refugees in Lebanon and return to Syria – more soon, hopefully!

Foreign Affairs: “How to Hold Syria Together”

My new article for Foreign Affairs, on why I think people's focus on the Syrian Islamist group  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its ideology might be misplaced – based on Syrian rebels' previous, largely anarchic experiments in governance, and the generally depleted state of the country, I'm less worried about religious extremism and more worried about chaos:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-hold-syria-together

Century International: “Syria’s Civil War Has Roared Back. How Far Can the Rebels Go?”

A quick Q&A that my Century International colleague Aron Lund and I did on Syrian opposition factions' rapid advance in the country's northwest:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-civil-war-has-roared-back-how-far-can-the-rebels-go/

Century International: “The United States Should Stop Cosponsoring Israel’s War on Lebanon”

My latest commentary for Century International, on my extreme dismay 😐 at the Biden administration's support for Israel's war on Lebanon:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/the-united-states-should-stop-cosponsoring-israels-war-on-lebanon/

The Biden administration has withdrawn its previous calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon's Hizbullah; now it unequivocally supports Israel's "limited" military operations to "degrade" Hizbullah. Perhaps unsurprisingly, though, Israel's war does not feel particularly "limited" for Lebanese currently being terrorized by Israeli airstrikes, and facing an Israeli invasion whose geographic ambitions and duration remain unclear. To add insult to injury, the Biden administration is now also trying to exploit Israeli military pressure to strong-arm Lebanese political leaders and force political change in Lebanon. It's a policy that is irresponsible and offensive, and that belies America's regular claims to be a friend to Lebanon. Because right now, the United States is now a full, open partner in Israel's war on the country.

TIME: “Where Hezbollah Goes From Here”

Here’s a quick analysis I wrote for TIME, on the outlook for Lebanon and Hizbullah now that whatever deterrence previously constrained Israel has broken down:

https://time.com/7049289/hezbollah-israel-war/

Hizbullah units are fighting now to repel Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon, but after successive Israeli blows to the organization, it's not clear how badly it has been degraded, or to what extent Israel has disrupted its internal command. In the air, meanwhile, Israel now has free rein – bombing at will, unimpeded by whatever deterrent threats Hizbullah could previously muster. Now Lebanon is waiting to see what Israel's full war aims might be, and how far it will try to go.

Century International: “Washington Can’t Make Israel’s War in Gaza Moral. Instead, It Needs to End the War.”

My latest for Century International, on the nature of Israel's military campaign in Gaza and U.S. policy elites' seeming inability to see the war for what it is:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/washington-cant-make-israels-war-in-gaza-moral-instead-it-needs-to-end-the-war/

World Politics Review: “The U.S. Should Start Planning Its Exit From Iraq and Syria”

My latest for World Politics Review, this time on a U.S. military presence in Iraq and Syria that seems to have run its course:

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-military-iraq-syria

A U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq and Syria seems unlikely in the near term, despite some recent speculation and media excitement. But Washington probably should start thinking about how to responsibly exit these countries – Syria, certainly – now that the counter-ISIS rationale for staying is basically defunct.

Hamas’s Hamad Promises Further ‘al-Aqsa Floods’ (in Context)

Below is a partial translation/transcript of Hamas political official Ghazi Hamad’s October 24, 2023, appearance on LBCI program “Nharkom Said” (Have a Happy Day), with host Nada Andraos. I’ve translated the segment in which Hamad promised there would be a “a second, a third, a fourth” al-Aqsa Flood, from 18:45 to 20:31.

Hamad’s remarks featured (stripped of context) in Western news reporting following October 7. They were subsequently referenced by President Biden (for example, see below) to justify his support for Israel’s maximalist war aims in Gaza and his rejection of a ceasefire that left Hamas in control of the territory.

I had been interested in tracking down Hamad’s original remarks to get a sense of the relevant context, but I only just managed to find the link to the “Nharkom Said” episode.

You’ll see from the partial transcript below that Hamad does promise further “al-Aqsa Flood”–type attacks, but he also situates October 7 and any future attacks in the context of Israel’s continuing occupation, which he says Palestinians will not just passively endure.

(Please let me know if I’ve mistranslated anything, and I’ll correct.)

Transcript (18:45–20:31)

Andraos: Is this a war to end Israel?

Hamad: Of course–

Andraos: This time? Or another round [of conflict], to improve conditions–

Hamad: It’s one round, but this time it achieved a very advanced qualitative leap.

Andraos: A war that ends with an exchange of captives and the opening of prisons, for thousands of prisoners–

Hamad: That’s among the goals.

Andraos: What about the siege?

Hamad: We have – I’m telling you, that’s among the goals. A main goal was, as I said, shattering the prestige [of Israel] and this arrogance – I’ll tell you something. A little while ago we had been in touch with mediators, whether it was the Qataris, the Egyptians, or the UN. We told them, these things being done in the West Bank and Jerusalem–

Andraos: Before the operation [al-Aqsa Flood]?

Hamad: Before the operation. These provocations, and bringing so-called sacred cows inside the al-Aqsa Mosque, bringing extremist Jews to pray in the mosque grounds, these provocations were near-daily. Also the raids that happened in Jenin and Nablus, and killing people for no reason – we told them, this needs to end. Once, twice, three times [we told them] – we’ll reach a point where things boil over. But unfortunately, [the reception was] cold. We didn’t get [a response] – we got more trouble, they’d go into Hawara, where they might kill people, settlers would come and cut down people’s trees, kill people in cold blood. And we Palestinians were supposed to stay polite and not do anything. So I think this will give them a lesson: next time, if they think [about doing this], then we’ll discipline them. And we’ll discipline them a second and a third time. And Al-Aqsa Flood won’t [just] be the first time. No, there will be a second, a third, a fourth, because we have determination, and we have [our] decision, and we have the means. We’ll fight, we’ll fight. But like I told you, will we pay a price? Yes, and we’re ready for that. And let me tell you clearly: we’re called ‘the people of martyrs.’ And we’re proud of offering up martyrs. And we want to do that for our people–

Andraos: But the greatest proportion of martyrs are women, children, the elderly…

Hamad: We’re looking for a good life for our Palestinian people, like all the peoples of the world. We’re no different than other people…

World Politics Review: “Hezbollah Won’t Stand Down Without a Cease-Fire in Gaza”

My latest for World Politics Review, on the limited – but still deadly – war between Hizbullah and Israel since October, and the seeming impossibility of de-escalating the Lebanon-Israel front without a ceasefire in Gaza:

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/hezbollah-israel-lebanon-hamas/

Century International: “It’s Time for a Ceasefire in Gaza—and Then a New Push for Peace”

Century International colleagues Thanassis Cambanis, Dahlia Scheindlin and I urge the Biden administration to push for a ceasefire in Gaza:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/its-time-for-a-ceasefire-in-gaza-and-then-a-new-push-for-peace/