Century International: “Russia’s War in Ukraine Will Also Hurt Syria”

Out today for Century International, I have a new report on the Ukraine conflict's ramifications for Syria:

https://tcf.org/content/report/russias-war-in-ukraine-will-also-hurt-syria/

I see Russia's invasion of Ukraine having two main (and related) impacts on Syria, on both the humanitarian situation in the country and Syria-related diplomacy:

First, the war in Ukraine threatens a global food crisis, and already food-insecure Syria seems especially vulnerable to those effects. The Ukraine conflict has disrupted world grain and energy markets and interrupted supplies of commodities essential to Syrians' diets, including wheat and sunflower oil. Now it's unclear if Syria's government and de facto authorities can import enough wheat to produce the local bread on which Syrians rely, and higher food prices more generally will make it even harder for Syrians to feed their families.

Second, the war in Ukraine also marks the apparent end of a U.S.-Russian humanitarian dialogue that, over the past year, had yielded important compromises on aid to Syria. Whatever potential existed for further agreements that might have benefited Syrians now seems lost. Moreover, as the U.S. and Russia explored other possible humanitarian compromises, they had been jointly interested in stability and relative calm in Syria. Now that seems over, with uncertain, potentially dangerous consequences.