International Crisis Group: “Rightsizing the Transnational Jihadist Threat”

Out today, I have a new Crisis Group commentary pushing back on some eye-popping numerical estimates of Salafi-jihadists worldwide that are alarmist and unhelpful:

https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/rightsizing-transnational-jihadist-threat

"Salafi-jihadism" is a specific thing that poses a specific threat. Playing fast and loose with definitions and lumping in large numbers of non-jihadist militants can only muddle policy thinking. What's more, the Salafi-jihadist movement has evolved dramatically in recent years. So yes, the number of actual jihadists in 2018 is much greater than in 2001 – but these fighters are also qualitatively different, and much more locally oriented. One-to-one comparisons over time don't make sense.

Smart counterterrorism policy will require focus and analytical precision. Big, dubious numbers, on the other hand, are attention-grabbing but not constructive.