The Century Foundation: “Lebanon Is in Free Fall. Opposition Groups Have Radically Different Ideas about How to Save It.”

My new report for Century International, on how members of Lebanon's opposition envision political change in a country that's collapsing around them:

https://tcf.org/content/report/lebanon-free-fall-opposition-groups-radically-different-ideas-save/

For nearly two years, Lebanon has been experiencing an economic implosion almost unparalleled in modern history. Foreign donors have conditioned a bailout on reform measures that contravene the interests of the country's sectarian political elites, who have been unwilling to play along. Yet those same elites remain solidly in control of the country, having withstood the challenge of Lebanon's 2019 nationwide protest movement. Today they preside over a country that is becoming steadily poorer and more desperate.

Saving Lebanon seemingly comes down to either convincing the country's political establishment to do what's responsible and necessary, even at the expense of its members' interests; or, failing that, producing some new national political leadership capable of managing Lebanon's existential crisis.

I talked to the opposition parties and activist groups that identify with that 2019 protest movement – the "17 October Revolution" – to hear how, in practice, they're aiming to achieve political change. These "17 October" groups' various theories of change are a main distinction between them, maybe more than their substantive political differences. Some are pursuing an immediate pacted transition with Lebanon's regime; others are focusing on next year's parliamentary and municipal elections; and still others are prioritizing more long-term grassroots change. All of them are attempting to theorize political change in Lebanon, from Lebanon.