War on the Rocks: “A Glimpse into the Islamic State’s External Operations, Post-Caliphate”

Today at War on the Rocks, I have a new article on the self-proclaimed Islamic State's ability to carry out international terror attacks, even after the loss of its territorial "caliphate":

https://warontherocks.com/2019/05/a-glimpse-into-the-islamic-states-external-operations-post-caliphate/

One of the main objectives of the U.S.-led military campaign against the Islamic State’s “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria was to deny the group a base to plot “external operations.” Weeks after the group lost its last territorial foothold in Syria, however, it claimed its deadliest-ever international terrorist attack, in Sri Lanka. So what global threat does a post-"caliphate" Islamic State still pose?

I've written about a presentation late last year by Lebanon's then Interior Minister, in which he laid out, in exceptional detail, a series of attempts by the Islamic State to plot terror attacks in Lebanon. Crucially, the Islamic State handlers managing the attacks were based in Syria's Idlib province – so, outside the group's defined, bounded territory, in areas it didn't control outright.

The Interior Minister's presentation provides a unique insight into how the Islamic State can plot external operations, even without territorial control. Yet it can also help demystify these attacks. Post-"caliphate," the group is likely even more motivated to use global terror to pose as an international bogeyman – but using this presentation, we can describe something intended to be terrifying and inexplicable in real, concrete terms…