War on the Rocks: “In Iraq, Restraint Is America’s Best Option” (with Maria Fantappie)

Maria Fantappie and I have a new article today at War on the Rocks, this time on the latest tit-for-tat violence between the United States and Iran-linked Iraqi paramilitaries – violence that is destructive for Iraq and, if it continues, is headed towards a strategic defeat for America:

https://warontherocks.com/2020/03/in-iraq-restraint-is-americas-best-option/

Reflexive U.S. retaliation to paramilitaries' provocations has not deterred their attacks. Far from it – the attacks have continued, and meanwhile efforts by anti-American political factions to drive the U.S. out of the country have gained new momentum.

If the United States hopes to preserve the U.S.-Iraqi bilateral relationship and remain in Iraq to help combat the country's Islamic State insurgency, it has to break this retaliatory cycle. But it can't do that by counter-escalating against paramilitary factions – instead, its best option is exercising restraint. That could create conditions for the formation of an Iraqi government with which Washington can partner and re-solidify the legitimate basis for its involvement in the country.

The seeming alternative is more deadly violence to no good end – more Iraqi lives lost and, ultimately, the U.S. out of Iraq entirely, in a major win for Iran and its Iraqi allies.