The Century Foundation: "Syrian Opposition Politics—with a Lower-Case ‘p’"

New from me for The Century Foundation:

Meet the Nation Building Movement’s Anas Joudeh, whose work likely represents the far, least-tolerated edge of tolerated opposition politics under a resurgent Assad regime.

“Syrian Opposition Politics—with a Lower-Case ‘p’”

War on the Rocks: "This Won't Look Like Winning: A Sensible Path for Trump's Syria Policy"

New from me at War on the Rocks:

Donald Trump’s election promises a substantive break with Barack Obama’s Syria policy, but he’s also challenged the policy community’s collective understanding of the Syrian war – and on some points, he’s been mostly correct.

His election and a possible American reorientation on Syria should prompt a larger rethinking of U.S. assumptions about the war, even as we have to be careful not to fall victim to a new and opposite set of dubious ideas.

“This Won’t Look Like Winning: A Sensible Path for Trump’s Syria Policy”

The Century Foundation: "A Syria Policy for Trump's America"

In a new report for The Century Foundation, I lay out a revised Syria strategy for the United States under President-elect Donald Trump:

https://tcf.org/content/report/syria-policy-trumps-america/

U.S. Syria policy had been due for a major rethink, even before the election of Trump. America’s publicly articulated goals in Syria have been impossible for some time now, at least in their most optimistic formulation and using any realistic means.

We’re likely now to see a course change under President-elect Trump, who has prioritized more cooperative relations with Russia and expressed his desire to coordinate with Russia to fight jihadists in Syria. But even as the United States reevaluates its Syria posture and potentially disengages from the Syrian opposition, it must be careful not to overcorrect.

We need to be realistic about the limits of what America can achieve in Syria, whether as part of Obama’s old agenda or Trump’s likely new one. And we need to avoid overcommitting in the service of dubious ends.

I argue:

• The Syrian opposition is a problematic partner, but the United States should not turn instead to the Assad regime. The idea is to extricate America from the Syrian war, not to join an escalation on behalf of the other side.

• America should not walk away from the opposition (and U.S. allies) abruptly and without guaranteeing opposition partners some soft landing.

• The United States should continue to fight Islamic State, but not so single-mindedly and recklessly that it endangers other key U.S. interests.

• And America must continue to invest in Syrian civilian well-being, inside and outside Syria, both for the sake of those civilians and to mitigate the war’s long-term destabilizing impact on the Middle East and the world.

The Century Foundation: "Keeping the Lights On in Rebel Idlib"

New from me, as part of The Century Foundation’s “Arab Politics beyond the Uprisings”: “Keeping the Lights On in Rebel Idlib.”

https://tcf.org/content/report/keeping-lights-rebel-idlib/

The brief is a dive into local governance in rebel-held Idlib province, where residents have attempted to fill the administrative void left by the Assad regime. In the process, Idlib’s governance and service sector has become another space for Idlibi civilians and Islamist and jihadist armed groups – which have developed their own service bodies – to compete for popular support and legitimacy, even as they work to keep foreign assistance coming and to keep Idlib livable in the middle of a civil war.

For more on “Arab Politics beyond the Uprisings,” a project documenting political change and transformation in a post-Spring Arab world, read Thanassis Cambanis’s introduction here: https://tcf.org/content/report/introduction-arab-politics-beyond-uprisings/

Foreign Policy: "Assad Will Talk, But He Won’t Negotiate"

New from me at Foreign Policy:

The Assad regime invited us into Damascus, in an apparent attempt to demonstrate its openness and appeal to Western opinion. But it mostly just showed us how it hadn’t changed – and that maybe it doesn’t know how.

Assad Will Talk, But He Won’t Negotiate

The Century Foundation: "What It’s Like to Meet Assad in Damascus"

New for the Century Foundation:

I talk with Thanassis Cambanis about my attendance at last week’s conference-junket in Damascus and what the Syrian government seemed to want from the event.

https://tcf.org/content/report/like-meet-assad-damascus/

The Century Foundation: "Failed Ceasefire Bonds Syrian Rebels and U.S. Government"

New from me for The Century Foundation:

Recent diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire in Syria and facilitate an end to the country’s war have been mostly bilateral, negotiated by the United States and Russia in Geneva. But U.S. diplomacy has been underpinned by a direct channel to a core set of rebel factions necessary to the success of any ceasefire. The running dialogue with these factions has seemingly been key to U.S. leverage in Geneva and is likely to figure prominently into other agreements going forward.

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/failed-ceasefire-bonds-syrian-rebels-u-s-government/

The Century Foundation panel: "The Cost of Syria's Collapse"

Video of The Century Foundation's 19 September panel on Syria, featuring me, Deborah Amos, Thanassis Cambanis, and Michael Wahid Hanna.

The Century Foundation: "Syria’s Rebels Lose a Symbolic Stronghold"

New from me for The Century Foundation:

Rebel Darayya has fallen. The Damascus suburb meant vastly different things to each side of the war, but both sides seem to recognize the town’s fall as a harbinger of regime victory on what is arguably Syria’s most important front—the interior of the western corridor running down Syria’s Mediterranean coast to Damascus, sometimes called “useful Syria.”

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-rebels-lose-symbolic-stronghold/

The Century Foundation: "In Syrian Proxy War, America Can Keep Its Hands Clean or It Can Get Things Done"

New from me for The Century Foundation:

Amateur footage of a Syrian rebel beheading a captive in the back of a pickup truck ought to be a wake-up call – sometimes, this is what proxy war looks like. So is the United States in or out?

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrian-proxy-war-america-can-keep-hands-clean-can-get-things-done/

On AlHurra: Jabhat al-Nusrah and Its Break with al-Qaeda

My appearance on AlHurra TV with Mona Wehbi to discuss Jabhat al-Nusrah and its split with al-Qaeda. (Arabic)

The Century Foundation: "Al Qaeda Quits Syria in Name Only"

New from me for The Century Foundation on the ostensible end of Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusrah and why there may be less to Nusrah’s break with al-Qaeda than meets the eye:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/al-qaeda-quits-syria-name/

The Century Foundation: "Are Syria’s Rebels at Al Qaeda’s Mercy?"

New from me for The Century Foundation:

Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusrah attacked another northern “Free Syrian Army” brigade earlier this month – but now the episode looks more like an interlude in a power struggle within that brigade than simply an act of Nusra villainy. What that means for disentangling Nusrah and Syria’s rebels:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-rebels-al-qaedas-mercy/

The Century Foundation: "Four Perspectives on the War in Syria"

New from The Century Foundation, a roundtable discussion of Syria featuring me, Thanassis Cambanis, Michael Hanna and Aron Lund. The piece features our general read on the war and our (mostly pessimistic) take on the policy options now available:

https://tcf.org/content/report/four-perspectives-war-syria/

Jabhat al-Nusrah Media Official: "A comment on David Ignatius’s article in the Washington Post"

Below I’ve translated the response from Abu Ammar al-Shami, head of Jabhat al-Nusrah’s media office, to David Ignatius’s July 19 Washington Post article. Abu Ammar’s rebuttal of Ignatius is a demonstration of the political trap the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate has set for the United States and its allies.

Ignatius’s article contends, based on U.S. official sources, that Jabhat al-Nusrah seems to be plotting external operations against Europe and the United States and that is operatives have tried to infiltrate Syrian refugee communities in Europe. Ignatius’s report comes as the United States seems to have struck a tentative agreement with Russia on expanded military and intelligence coordination with Russia against both Nusrah and the self-proclaimed Islamic State. (Ignatius’s article also says, based on an upcoming Institute for the Study of War forecast, that Nusrah will merge with Ahrar al-Sham later this year, which I think is unlikely.)

Jabhat al-Nusrah has repeatedly denied that it intends to conduct attacks abroad, a denial that Abu Ammar repeats in the tweets I’ve translated below. Nusrah leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani stressed in an interview last year that – as per instructions from al-Qaeda leader Aymen al-Zawahiri himself – Nusrah’s mission is to topple the Assad regime and institute Islamic rule in Syria, not to endanger the Syrian jihad by using Syria as a launching pad for attacks on the West.

Abu Ammar dismisses the U.S. government suspicions relayed by Ignatius as just another false pretext for war, a prelude to a military campaign against Jabhat al-Nusrah that will strengthen the Syria regime of Bashar al-Assad and pave the way for a U.S.-sponsored political resolution in the regime’s favor.

But when it comes to Jabhat al-Nusrah’s ambitions beyond Syria – and here’s the thing – who knows. Aside from Nusrah insiders and maybe some regional and international policymakers being fed information of variable reliability by secret squirrels, I don’t know if anyone has confident or reliable insight into what Nusrah is planning.

In the same interview in which he denied plotting to strike the West, Jolani said that if American bombing continued against Jabhat al-Nusrah, then Nusrah’s “options are open.” “If this situation [i.e., U.S. bombing] continues as is,” Jolani said, “I think there will be ramifications that won’t be in favor of the West and America.”

So Jabhat al-Nusrah can, hypothetically, flip that switch. And if it has been sending members abroad, it may be doing the advance work to ensure it has operatives in place and that its options are, indeed, open.

But what Jabhat al-Nusrah has also done is to make itself so central to Syria’s insurgency, particularly in the Syrian north, that any stepped-up campaign of U.S. bombing on Nusrah will inevitably weaken and endanger the broader armed opposition to the Assad regime. And absent a high-profile attack on the West and a claim of responsibility on Nusrah letterhead – not suspicions of attack planning or nebulous warnings – expanded targeting of Nusrah will be read by many in the Syrian opposition as an intervention on behalf of the Assad regime.

So Jabhat al-Nusrah gets to have it both ways. It can – maybe, allegedly – prepare for external operation contingencies. And at the same time, it can claim innocence and wrap itself in a broader Syrian opposition constituency that the United States and its allies are reluctant to alienate.

As for Syria’s other rebels, Nusrah asks them for their aid and brotherly solidarity. But, left unspoken, there is a reverse edge to Nusrah’s appeals for aid: As Nusrah has made clear, it reserves the right to dismantle any faction it judges to be a Crusader stooge or an enemy of the Islamic project in Syria.

As the United States potentially gears up for an expanded campaign on Jabhat al-Nusrah, it seems Nusrah has lashed itself to Syria’s rebels – and their fate is now shared, like it or not.

Translation follows:

A comment on David Ignatius’s article in the Washington Post:

No one is fooled anymore by the motions of American propaganda in the leadup to every war and act of destruction. It invents flimsy reasons and false claims to condition public opinion against [its enemy].

To target Jabhat al-Nusrah is to target the Syrian revolution on behalf of Assad, to weaken the strength of the mujahideen, and to tilt the scales in favor of these Rafidhi [derog., Shi’ite] militias on a number of fronts.

Jabhat al-Nusrah has made clear before that its project is to aid (nusrah) the oppressed in Syria and make them the priority in its staged strategy to bring down the Nuseiri (derog., Alawite) regime and its allies.

In Syria today, we are in urgent need of those who will support us and come to join the fight. [We don’t need] to send men across the ocean to fight an enemy that is already fighting us today, in person and with its tools.

We in Jabhat al-Nusrah stress that, in the interest of keeping the Syrian jihad ongoing and strong, all other desirable interests, including targeting the West and America, fall away and disappear.

And the other mujahid factions need to recognize that the elimination of Jabhat al-Nusrah today and permitting this Russian-American agreement to proceed without a position from you – for God, and then for history…

… Amounts to the abandonment of your brothers and the weakening of your own strength. Afterwards, America will be satisfied with nothing less than your submission to a political solution tilted towards Assad and his allies.

We’ve only thought the best of you, so aid your brothers and defend them through your words, through announcing the truth and through deflecting on their behalf. For God is the best guardian, and He is the most merciful of the merciful.

تعليقا على مقال الواشنطن بوست للكاتب ديفيد أغناشيوس:
(1)

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

لم تعد تنطلي على أحد مسارات الدعايةالإعلامية الأمريكية قبيل كل حرب أو دمار
فتخلق لذلك أسباب واهية ودعاوى كاذبة بغية تهيئة الرأي العام ضده
2

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

وإن استهداف #جبهة_النصرة استهداف للثورة السورية لصالح الأسد، وإضعاف لقوة المجاهدين، وميل لكفة الميليشيات الرافضية في العديد من الجبهات
3

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

وقد بينت #جبهة_النصرة من قبل أن مشروعها هو نصرة المستضعفين في الشام وجعلهم أولويةفي استراتيجتها المرحلية حتى إسقاط النظام النصيري وحلفائه
4

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

وإننا في #الشام اليوم في حاجة ماسة لمن ينصرنا وينفر إلينا لا أن نرسل الشباب لما وراء البحار ليقاتلوا عدوا يقاتلنا اليوم بنفسه وبأدواته
5

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

ونؤكد في #جبهة_النصرة أن أمام مصلحة الحفاظ على الجهاد الشامي قائما قويا تنزوي وتغيب كافة المصالح المرجوحة الأخرى من استهداف الغرب وأمريكا
6

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

وعلى الفصائل المجاهدة إدراك أن في القضاء على #جبهة_النصرة اليوم والسماح للاتفاق الروسي الامريكي بالمرور دون موقف منكم لله ثم للتاريخ…
7

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

لهو الخذلان لإخوانكم وإضعاف لقوتكم، ولن ترضى أمريكا بعدها منكم سوى الإذعان لحل سياسي يرجح في كفة الأسد وحلفائه.
8

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

وما ظننا بكم إلا خيرا، فأعينوا إخوانكم وادفعوا عنهم باللسان والبيان والتخذيل، فالله خير حافظا وهو أرحم الراحمين
9
انتهى

— أبو عمّار الشّامي (@Ammari011) July 21, 2016

Addendum on the Twitter Account Attributed to Khaz'al al-Sarhan

After the publication of my recent article on the New Syrian Army for The Century Foundation, New Syrian Army commander Khaz’al al-Sarhan has denied that the Twitter account in his name with which I corresponded belonged to him.

A full accounting of my correspondence with the account and attempts to verify it is available at the bottom of the original article. What follows are screenshots of my conversation with the account over DM.

The Century Foundation: "Suppose America Gave a Proxy War in Syria and Nobody Came?"

New from me for the Century Foundation:

Last Wednesday, the New Syrian Army—America’s best, maybe only, hope to challenge the self-proclaimed Islamic State in its east Syrian stronghold—launched a daring attack on the heart of Islamic State territory.

By Thursday, it had gone wrong. Islamic State had been waiting, and the New Syrian Army only barely avoided being annihilated by circling jihadists.

For the United States, it was just the latest in a series of mostly unsuccessful attempts to field a Syrian Arab proxy force against Islamic State. The defeat was yet another example of how America’s agenda has run up against the factional and personal politics of Syria’s rebels, as well as the basic disconnect between the U.S. priority of combating Islamic State and most rebels’ aim of toppling the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

https://tcf.org/content/report/suppose-america-gave-proxy-war-syria-nobody-came/

War on the Rocks: "Russia Is in Charge in Syria: How Moscow Took Control of the Battlefield and Negotiating Table"

New from me at War on the Rocks:

Russia has leveraged its September 2015 military intervention on behalf of the Assad regime to establish itself as the central military actor in Syria’s war. Russia has, in turn, used its military primacy to oblige others — including the United States — to treat it as the gatekeeper to a negotiated solution to the conflict.

But Russia is now invested heavily in a political process that, thanks to uncooperative Syrians on all sides of the war, seems unlikely to pan out, leaving Moscow to grapple with how to deliver “success” in Syria. Unless America is willing to risk a dangerous and unpredictable confrontation with Russia, the course of Syria’s war hinges on what Russia does next.

Russia is in Charge in Syria: How Moscow Took Control of the Battlefield and Negotiating Table

The Daily Beast: "The Home of Syria’s Only Real Rebels"

New from me on The Daily Beast:

Syria’s northwest Idlib province is a tense, sometimes scary place, pulled between Islamist and jihadist factions vying for control but too intertangled to really fight each other. Now Idlib – for better or for worse – has become the heart of Syria’s armed rebellion against the Assad regime.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/17/the-home-of-syria-s-only-real-rebels.html

RFE/RL's "Under the Black Flag" Blog: "Al-Qaeda Speaks The Language Of Syrian Sectarianism"

New from me on RFE/RL’s “Under the Black Flag” blog:

Jabhat al-Nusrah’s top religious official makes an appeal for jihad in Syrian terms – and it turns out that when al-Qaeda wants to tap into an indigenously Syrian sentiment to fuel their jihad, it looks to toxic, even genocidal, sectarianism.

http://www.rferl.org/content/black-flag-syria-islamic-state-al-qaeda-sectarianism-alawites/27788931.html